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[innesota Chippewa Tribe:
Population Projections
In 2012-2013, Minnesota Chippewa Tribe (MCT) contracted with Wilder Research to conduct a study
and produce population projections for MCT as a whole as well as for the six member Bands: Bois Forte,
Fond du Lac, Grand Portage, Leech Lake, Mille Lacs, and White Earth. In 2013-2014, MCT again
contracted with Wilder Research to update the existing projections and to add an additional alternative
enrollment criteria scenario to the study.
The purpose of this study is to help MCT and its member Bands better understand population trends, and
specifically understand the tribe’s population trajectory under: the current tribal membership criteria (1/4
blood quantum of MCT blood, scenario 1) and proposed alternative criteria used to determine tribal
membership eligibility. The alternative criteria under consideration are: to allow other Chippewa/ Ojibwe
blood from non-MCT federally recognized tribes and Canadian First Nations to count toward the requirement
of 1/4 MCT blood quantum (scenario 2), to allow blood from any federally recognized American Indian
tribes and Canadian First Nation to count toward the requirement of 1/4 MCT blood quantum (scenario
3), to reduce the blood quantum criteria to 1/8 MCT blood (scenario 4), or to use lineal descent from the
1941 MCT Base Roll (instead of blood quantum) to determine enrollment eligibility. Population projections
through the year 2100 were completed for each of these scenarios for MCT and for each Band.
This report summarizes the findings of this study. More detailed information is available in the Minnesota
Chippewa Tribe Population Projections Methodology Report.
Wilder
MAY 2014
Research
VN
md


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Key findings
@ = The overall population of MCT and each of the Bands is declining under the current enrollment
criteria (1/4 MCT blood quantum, scenario 1).
m This population decline will also be accompanied by a substantial aging of the population. Nearly half
of MCT members will be age 65+ by the later part of this century (under scenario 1), compared with
just over 10% in 2013. This significant aging of the population will have an impact on the
characteristics and operations (i.e., member programming and service needs) of MCT.
@ All of the scenarios using 1/4 MCT blood quantum (scenarios 1, 2, and 3) will result in population
declines over the remainder of this century.
@ The adjusted fertility rate for the population is low (1.235 children per woman’s lifetime) under the
current enrollment criteria. A fertility rate of approximately 2.1 or higher (or other changes to the
enrollment criteria) is needed to maintain or increase population size.
m™ The scenario using 1/8 blood quantum (scenario 4) results in a significant initial increase in
population size and projections that the population size will remain relatively constant through the
end of this century, with some Bands growing considerably and other shrinking considerably
(because of the current age and gender differences by Band).
m The scenario using lineal descent (scenario 5) results in a significant initial increase in population size
and projections that the population could range anywhere from 120,000 to over 200,000 by the end of
the century.
Study methods
As a part of this study, Wilder Research conducted a MCT member survey that included a random
(representative) sample of Band members from each of the six Bands. Over 100 surveys were completed
with members of each Band, which were used to understand the extent to which MCT members have non-
MCT American Indian and Canadian First Nations blood, in themselves and in their children.
Wilder Research worked with Gillaspy Demographics (Tom Gillaspy, independent consultant and former
Minnesota State Demographer) to obtain information from publicly available sources such as the U.S.
Census Bureau to establish fertility and mortality rates in this population in order to produce reliable and
valid population projections. We also worked with MCT to obtain and update the 1941 Base Roll to be
used for the projections based on lineal descent.
Since the population for each of the six Bands was projected using the same survival and fertility rates,
differences in projected population depend on the starting (2013) age and gender profile of the enrolled
membership.
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Scenario 1
Population projections for the Minnesota Chippewa By Band
tribe assuming no changes are made to the enrollment 2013 2098
| |
criteria, which is currently set at a threshold of 1/4
MCT blood to be eligible for enrollment
BOIS FORTE
3,375
This is the most restrictive scenario, since it limits 1,109
enrollment to the current standard of at least 1/4 MCT
blood quantum to be eligible for tribal enrollment. Leaving
the tribal enrollment criteria as is, the projected enrolled
population declines from just over 41,000 in 2013 to FOND
just under 9,000 in 2098. This represents a decline of DU LAC 4,226
approximately 78 percent or more than 32,000 members. iq 995
GRAND
PORTAGE
1,113 120
LEECH 9,244
LAKE 4
2,663
2663
IN a
Total
MILLE LACS
4,406
1,835
41,110 4
—_
18,746
r
WHITE
EARTH
2271
N a
2013 2033 2058 2078 2098
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Scenario 2
Population projections for the Minnesota Chippewa
By Band
tribe assuming changes are made to the enrollment 2013 2098
|
criteria to allow all Chippewa/Ojibwe blood from a
-
40
|
federally recognized American Indian tribe or Canadian
BOIS | 3,375-4,798
5 1,309-2,456
First Nation (not just MCT blood) to count toward the FORTE
r
|
1/4 threshold to be eligible for enrollment o*+ . a
In terms of population size, this scenario is slightly less 10 ]
restrictive than the current tribal enrollment criteria 4,226-6,007
(illustrated in scenario 1), because it allows Ojibwe/ FOND 5 }
Chippewa blood from federally recognized American DU LAC r . 1,172-2,198
Indian tribes and Canadian First Nations to be added to
MCT blood, resulting in a combined blood quantum of
at least 1/4. 10,
!
The lower end projection under this scenario results GRAND |
5
in a total MCT population of 10,625 in the year 2098, PORTAGE
which is only slightly higher than the projection of ; 1,113-1,582 142-266
population size if the enrollment criteria is left as is. )
(The lower end projection assumes that starting in 2013
;
20
new births would be eligible for enrollment under the 9,244-13,140
|
new criteria.) The higher end projection, which assumes LEECH 3,152-5,914
10
that individuals who are currently alive who meet this LAKE ry
criteria would also be eligible to enroll, estimates a total & D |
MCT population of 19,934 in the year 2098, with all o
Bands’ populations still declining during this period.
*
10
enrollment
The likely actual MCT population if the enrollment criteria 4 406-6,263
2,160-4,052
were to be changed to 1/4 MCT plus other Chippewa/ MILLE |
Ojibwe blood quantum is likely somewhere in between LACS 5 rv
these two estimates. >
o = :
Total
30 118,746-26,648
41,110-58,438 !
WHITE 20 >
EARTH 10 2,691-5,048
4 10,625-19,934 o & =
NX
iN 4
i I T T “|
2013 2033 2058 2078 2098
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Scenario 3
Population projections for the Minnesota Chippewa By Band
tribe assuming changes are made to the enrollment 2013 2098
| j
,
criteria to allow blood from any federally recognized 10
i
1,494-2,469
“sees
American Indian tribe or Canadian First Nation BOIS | 3:375-4,798
(not just MCT blood) to count toward the 1/4 threshold FORTE |
y
P
to be eligible for enrollment o & a
In terms of population size, this scenario is the least 10 ]
FOND
restrictive option presented here, because it allows blood | 4,226-6,007
from any federally recognized American Indian tribes 5 i 1,335-2,207
DU LAC ,
and Canadian First Nations to be added to MCT blood,
resulting in a combined blood quantum of at least 1/4. o & |
The lower end projection under this scenario results 10
in a total MCT population of 12,141 by the year 2098,
GRAND
which is slightly higher than either scenario 1 or scenario 2. 5
PORTAGE
162-268
(The lower.end projection assumes that starting in 2013 1.113 ; 4,582
births would be eligible for enrollment under the _
new 3 :
new criteria.) The higher end projection, which assumes
that individuals who are currently alive who meet this 20 |
| 9,244-13,140
criteria would also be eligible to enroll, estimates a total LEECH p 3,608-5,962
MCT population of 20,063 in the year 2098, with all 40
LAKE v
Bands’ populations still declining during this period.
J
The likely actual MCT population if the enrollment criteria o &
were to be changed to 1/4 MCT plus other American
Indian or Canadian First Nations blood quantum is likely 10 > 4,406-6,263
somewhere in between these two estimates. MILLE 5! 2,461-4,066
LACS ,
NN
Total
o » 4
41,110-58,438
30 ; 18,746-26,648
WHITE 20,
v 12,141-20,063 EARTH 40 - 3,081-5,091
0 »- — |
‘N
N 4
r T T T 1
2013 2033 2058 2078 2098
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Scenario 4
Population projections for the Minnesota Chippewa
By Band
tribe assuming the enrollment criteria is changed to 1/8 2013 2098
| J
MCT blood to be eligible for enrollment 10
3,375-5,372 5,208-6,565
|
This is a much more liberal scenario than the others BOIS
5 =
under consideration, because it lowers the overall blood FORTE
r
quantum requirement to 1/8 MCT blood. This change o & dd
effectively increases the “adjusted fertility rate” of MCT
members (adjusted to reflect the proportion of children 10
»
born to member mothers who are themselves eligible for | 4:226-6,726 4,596-5,794
.
enrollment), the projected enrolled population will FOND 5!
have fluctuations and slight overall growth between DU LAC 4 ‘N
2013 and 2098, although some Bands would increase 0 »- P|
substantially whereas others would decrease
substantially. The lower end projection assumes that 10 |
starting in 2013 new births would be eligible for enrollment
|
GRAND
under a 1/8 MCT blood quantum criteria. The higher end 5
PORTAGE |
projection assumes that individuals who are currently alive 1 1,113-1,774 567-715
who meet this criteria would also be eligible to enroll. The O. nen
likely actual MCT population if the enrollment criteria
were
to be changed to 1/8 MCT blood quantum is likely 20 + 9,244-14,713 12,826-16,168
somewhere in between these two estimates.
LEECH |
40
LAKE r
Total
iN |
0 y
41,110-65,432
42,663-53,781
|
MILLE 4,406-7,013 8,454-10,657
10 )
v | ‘ LACS x
iq
0 y |
-
30 18,746-29,837
2013 2033 2058 2078 2098 WHITE 20 , 11,012-13,882
EARTH 10 - -
»~ |
0 y
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Scenario 5
Population projections for the Minnesota Chippewa
By Band
tribe assuming the enrollment criteria is changed to 2015 2100
;
lineal descent from the 1941 MCT Base Roll to be
20
eligible for enrollment
BOIS 6,668-11,184
o
This is the most liberal scenario than the others under FORTE 3,427 1
consideration, because it does not use blood quantum, but o L 4
instead would make anyone who is a lineal descendant
from someone on the 1941 MCT Base Roll to be eligible 20 | 10,977-18,395 |
f or enrollmen Iiment. |
FOND
0 \
Under this scenario, the highest possible base population of DU LAC po
MCT as of 2015 would be 63,033. However, as with the * A
o
other scenarios, not everyone who would become eligible
to enroll if the enrollment criteria were changed would 10 +
actually enroll, the 2015 base population would likely be |
so 3,984-6,682
GRAND
somewhere between the current MCT population and this 5 4
number. PORTAGE 12,045 x
0 : a
By the end of this century, the MCT population
under this scenario could range from a lower end
estimate of just over 120,000 to a higher end estimate 40 19,568-32,818
of just over 200,000. This huge range is based on LEECH !
varying projections of fertility rates for this population LAKE 20 10,075
over the next century. A
o = y
Total 10 4
3,941-6,611
122,449-205,356 MILLE
|
5
LACS ' 2,028
X
y
ot
N
63,033 | 77,308-129,665
120
_
- WHITE 20
|
16,895 x
EARTH , 39,717
T T T
as “1 40 7
1941 2015 2100 o* 4
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Wilder
Research
Information. Insight. Impact.
f : For information
| or more
For more information about this report, contact Nicole
451 Lexington Parkway North AMHERST H. MartinRogers at Wilder Research, 651-280-2682.
Saint Paul, Minnesota 55104 WILDER Author: Nicole MartinRogers
FOUNDATION MAY 2014
ESTABLISHED 1906
651-280-2700
www.wilderresearch.org Here for good.